2018 EMU 6-Day Race -Men's Preview

2018-EMU 6-Day Race

“Highly Illogical”

by Joe Fejes

A new champion is guaranteed in the 2018 EMU 6-Day Race as last year’s 2017 EMU winner Johan Steene decided to skip the race to focus on the upcoming 24-hour European Championship.  Johan won last year’s event with 870 km (540 miles) in his debut at the 6-day format.  Even with Johan’s absence the EMU field is loaded with at least 13 runners capable of breaking the unofficial “world class” threshold of 800 km/497 miles in a 6-day event that are entered in this year’s edition.

The race begins on Thursday May 3, 2018 (6 am Eastern Standard Time) in the USA and at noon in Hungary. Real time tracking will be available throughout the race. 

 “800 club”:

Eight (8) men that are entered have already achieved the world class designation by having run 800 km or more.  The “world class” contingent is led by none other than the legendary Wolfgang Schwerk, whose 6-day personal best of 1010 km/627 miles is the third best performance ever behind only Jean-Giles Boussiquet (1030 km/640 miles) and Yiannis Kouros World Record of (1036.80 km/644.23 miles). What is even more impressive is that Schwerk’s performance was accomplished when he was 52 years old.  In my opinion, Wolfgang is one of the top 3 greatest ultrarunners of all time having mastered a wide range of distances from the marathon to the 3100 mile Sri Chinmoy.  He is still putting up world class numbers in his 60s.  In 2016, Wolfgang broke the 6-day 60+ world age group best performance by running 874 km/543 miles at EMU, finishing second overall.  His 6-day personal best is almost 100 miles further than the next best entrant. Can he still compete for the win at age 62? Absolutely provided he is healthy and still hungry to compete for the victory.

The other 7 veteran runners that have achieved 800+ km are: (1) Didier Sessegolo (858 km/533 miles); (2) Peter Molnar (842 km/523 miles);  (3) Marc Etiemble (838 km/520 miles); (4) Jose Luis Posado Perez (830 km/515 miles); (5) Michele Notarangelo (821 km/510 miles); (6) Tomoyuki Sasaki (802 km/498 miles) and (7) Mikael Jonsson (801 km/497 miles).

Didier Sessegolo, (age 54). (858 km/533 miles); Veteran French multiday racer that has been competing in ultras since 2002. Didier has run six 8-day races and four 6-day races. In 2013, he ran two 6-day races and one 8-day race winning all three events which included his 6-day personal record of 858 km/ 533 miles was the best in the world for that year. Didier loves the multiday format and with his consistency and experience is a lock for a top 10 performance.

Peter Molnar (age 39).  Silver medalist at EMU last year with his 842 km/523 mile performance. Peter is a native Hungarian who will have a large cheering section of family and friends. Peter is proof positive that a smart game plan coupled with desire and determination is more important that leg speed in the six-day.  Peter’s 24-hour personal best is only 213 km/132 miles yet he almost ran 850 km last year in his second six-day race.  Mike Dobies remarked that he though Peter’s pacing was spot on last year even better than Johan.

Marc Etiemble (age 46). (838 km/520 miles); Another experience French multiday runner having completed 4 six-day events with a personal best of 838 km in 2011, which was the world’s best mark that year. The past few years he has reduced the frequency of his races and has spent more time on the trail than the short loop multiday events. He will likely be focusing on winning the team trophy along with his compatriot Didier.

Jose Luis Posado Perez (age 63). (830 km/515 miles). Spain’s finest multiday runner has had a brilliant ultrarunning career having competed for Team Spain in at least 12 IAU World or European Championships for both the 100km and 24-hour dating back to 2002. He has done battle early in his career with the likes of many of the great ultrarunning competitors such as Denis Zhalybin, Oleg Kharitonov, Ryochi Sekiya, Scott Jurek, Phil McCarthy, Shingo Inoue and others.  Posado Perez is still running 200 km+ in the 24 hour and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 700+ km performance from him notwithstanding his age.

Michele Notarangelo (age 44). (821 km/510 miles); Michele grabbed 4^th place last year at EMU with a (821 km/510 mile performance). His performances have improved substantially the past two years and is poised to surpass the 850 km barrier.

Tomoyuki Sasaki (age 39). (802 km/498 miles)  Tomo cracked the 800 km barrier in last year’s EMU race finishing with 802 km/ 498 miles to take 6^th place in an impressive 6-day debut. Very interesting ultrarunning resume. Most of his 15 races appear to have been rugged mountain and trail races until discovering his niche in the 6-day event. Tomoyuki is a wild card for sure especially after dispelling the widely held notion that a first time 6-day runner won’t run well.

Mikael Jonsson (age 51). (801 km/497 miles). Sweden’s Jonsson clipped the 800 km threshold two years ago at the 2016 EMU 6 Day Race with 801 km/497 miles finishing in 3^rd  place behind Wolfgang and myself.

Six Day Newbies:

Five (5) runners that will be making their 6 -day debut at EMU this year, that have impressive ultrarunning credentials and are all capable of making the podium are: Mick Thwaites (Australia); Bob Hearn (USA); Martin Hokes (Czech) and Shuhei Odani (Japan).

Shuhei Odani, (age 29). Shuhei is young but has plenty of ultrarunning experience coupled with stellar leg speed.  He is a 2:42 marathoner and has a 24 hour best of 256km/159 miles in the 2012 Jingu Gaien 24 Hour Challenge. Odani also finished 8^th (2 spots ahead of me—dammit) in the 2013 24-hour World Championship in Steenbergen, Netherlands with a 250 km performance. Look for Odani to have a substantial lead at the end of day 1.  At a minimum Odani should threaten the Japanese 6-day national mark of 814.40 km held by Katsuhiro Tanaka set in the 2005 Colac race. Interestingly it appears that Japan’s famed 24-hour team manager, Aki Inoue, has the 2^nd best 6-day mark having run 809.50 km in the 2005 Colac race. It will be fascinating to observe whether Odani’s youth and leg speed help or hurt his debut 6-day performance. Probably the only knock on Odani is that he hasn’t even run a 48-hour race yet so will have his feet full by jumping into the 6-day. In my opinion it is very difficult to jump into the 6-day without prior multiday experience.  Shuhei will likely experience physical issues he hasn’t previously encountered.

Mick Thwaites, (age 44). Mick has had several impressive performances the past few years. In 2015, he took 16^th place at the 24-Hour World Championship in Torino with 247 km. In 2016, he finished 4^th at Badwater with a sub 24-hour finish, behind only Pete Kostelnick, Harvey Lewis, and Dan Lawson. He also has run 400+km in the 48-hour on 2 occasions (413 & 404). His pacing strategy appears to be consistent having 24- hour splits for both 48 hours of 228 & 235 (kilometers) respectively. Look for Thwaites to have the lead day 2. Rumor has it he will be crewed by Martin Fryer. 

Martin Hokes: (age 40), Czech runner who is a relative newcomer to ultrarunning with vast majority of his performances having occurred with the past 5 years. His 24 hour best occurred last year at Belfast 24 hour World Championship where he took 24^th place with 245 km/152 miles.  He also finished in 10^th place at the 2017 Spartathlon with 25:52. His rapid improvement year over year the past 5 years is a good sign for breakout performance. He also completed a 490km run from Athens-Sparta-Athens in 78:22 in November 2018.  He is my pick to surprise some people at EMU in his debut.

Tasumoro Hori (age 38). Tasumoro’s past history is tough to figure out.  In 2011 (almost 7 years ago) he ran a 24-hour personal best of 247km/153 miles indoors. Since then he hasn’t come close to improving on his performance with the exception of a 230 km 24-hour effort in 2013 and a (361 km/224 mile) 48-hour performance last year. The lack of consistency is a significant concern but his 24-hour personal record coupled with a recent decent 48-hour is enough reason for me to add him to the “ones to watch” list.

Bob Hearn, (52): What about the Bobster? As I have said on numerous occasions, my good friend Bob’s IQ is off the charts. As a kid he was a Rubik’s cube protégé able to solve puzzles in the bat of any eye.  Think of the fictional character “young Sheldon” of the tv series IQ cubed.   Bob holds a PhD in Artificial Intelligence from MIT. Early in his career as a software programmer, he co-wrote ClarisWorks, one of the most successful Apple Mac programs of all time. His hobbies include astronomy, cosmology, juggling and quantum mechanics. He also likes to play the harpsichord along with his analog modular synthesizer. 

Bob’s running credentials are almost as impressive as his book smarts and intellectual wizardry, He is the current 24-hour and 48-hour American record holder for the 50-54 age group with 152.15 and 231.99 miles respectively.  His pacing is methodical, virtually even split, from start to finish.  He will undoubtedly be gunning for my 6-day (50-54) American age group (867.509 km) as well as my overall (975.654) American Record or maybe even the official IAU recognized (50-54) world best performance (980.80 km/609.44 miles) currently held by Gilbert Mainix.  

Bob will face two daunting challenges in his 6-day debut:

(1)    Physical abuse-the 6-day race beats the hell out of you, physically, mentally and emotionally, especially if you plan to run 90+ miles each day.  Bob’s legs were trashed after his 48-hour debut at Snowdrop. He will almost certainly encounter much, much worse tendonitis in his inaugural 6 day compared to what he experienced in the 48-hour race, even if he runs perfect splits throughout. In Bob’s Snowdrop race report he complained having during the last few hours of the race  “...pain in his left tibialis anterior or maybe extensor digitorum longus, along with pain in his right peroneal muscles.”  I experienced these same injuries at Across the Year 6 day and both of my EMU races. Severe tendonitis in the anterior tibialis or extensor digitorum longus is probably the most common injury a multiday runner deals with.

A fascinating 1984 sports medicine article written by M.A. Hutson “MEDICAL IMPLICATIONS OF ULTRA MARATHON RUNNING: OBSERVATIONS ON A SIX DAY TRACK RACE” contained the following astute observation regarding physical abuse dealt by the 6-day race format:

ABSTRACT Medical records were kept of the injuries and illnesses sustained by competitors in a six day running race held in Nottingham in August 1982. The overall rate of injuries sufficiently severe to affect running performance was 60 per cent. These injuries are itemised and discussed with particular reference to the problems raised by this ultra distance race.

MEDICAL OBSERVATIONS Physiotherapy services were available at the site of the race and medical attention was also available on a number of occasions throughout each day. Records were kept of the injuries sustained and of the consultations with the doctor and physiotherapist. The number of competitors who sustained injuries sufficiently severe to impair their performance was 15 (60 per cent). Besides relatively minor complaints, such as muscle stiffness and blistering of feet, the principal injuries were: Achilles tendinitis Psoas bursitis Tendinitis of the foot dorsiflexors Patellar tendinitis Patello-femoral syndrome Gastrocnemius strain Psychological stress Gross tiredness/exhaustion Shin splints (probably anterior compartment syndrome).  All of these injuries were stress related. Two of the competitors who developed Achilles tendinitis were unable to continue running. One retired from the race on the third day. The other continued to race by walking up to 50 miles a day for the last three days; the walking pattern was grossly abnormal, being a rotatory movement on heel strike with fixed ankle in an attempt to reduce calf contraction and Achilles stretch. Both had bilateral lesions with the development offusiform swellings and associated peritendonitis - these signs developed as they continued to exercise after the onset of symptoms. It is a feature of the personality of long distance competitors of this caliber that injury does not prevent running unless severe; it is quite possible that tendinitis could extend under these circumstances to become partial rupture. It was interesting to note that as the race proceeded and the pace maintained the majority of competitors took some time after a rest to "loosen up" and reduce stiffness and initial pain. Occasionally, if the injury was not too severe, the symptoms would improve as the "training effect" of the race itself took effect. Only one competitor was thought to have a possible early stress fracture (of the tibia): symptoms did not worsen and may have been due to anserine bursitis rather than a stress fracture. Of those competitors who suffered significant mental trauma, one had recently recovered from a tension illness and required reassurance after physical examination during the course of the race. The other developed rather paranoid feelings regarding his colleagues' views of possible drug taking, becoming very disenchanted with the race and not running at all for the last 24 hours, apart from a run-in at the finish. The red blood cells and haemoglobin were found in the urine of the competitor who walked over 400 miles - he had previously suffered from frank blood stained urine and he was not too alarmed. Urinalysis was not routinely performed.”

(2)    Overcoming his high IQ: Super intelligent people (such as Bob) are masters of engaging in risk/reward, cost benefit analysis in their everyday decision-making process. Prior to making a decision, they first run complex calculations, algorithms and models in their minds to rank order the outcome of their decision. They then choose the optimal strategy suggested by their models. The six-day race is much, much different than everyday life. To succeed in the 6-Day Race, a runner oftentimes needs to engage in mindless and extremely risky behavior. At some juncture of the race Bob will have to make a highly illogical decision that is completely opposite of what his models are telling him he should do. For Bob to win or break records at EMU he will really have to dumb it down and not listen to Spock.

Comparative 6 day/48 hour and 24 personal bests

Runner	Age	6-day (km)	6-day (mi)	48 hr (km)	48 hr (km)	24 hr (km)	24 hr (mi)	# Ultras	Country
Odani, Shuhei	29	Debut	Debut	Debut	Debut	256	159	20	Japan
Thwaites, Mick	44	Debut	Debut	413	256	247	153	35	Australia
Hokes, Martin	40	Debut	Debut	Debut	Debut	245	152	21	Czech
Hearn, Bob	52	Debut	Debut	373	231	244	151	55	USA
Hori, Tasumaro	38	Debut	Debut	361	224	247	153	61	Japan
Schwerk, Wolfgang	62	1010	627	420	260	276	171	142	Germany
Sessegolo, Didier	54	858	533	345	214	203	126	40	France
Molnar, Peter	39	842	523	272	169	213	132	28	Hungary
Etiemble, Marc	46	838	520	277	172	211	131	53	France
Perez Posado, Jose Luis	63	830	515	404	251	248	155	61	Spain
Notarangelo, Michele	44	821	510	256	159	216	134	44	Italy
Sasaki, Tomoyuki	39	802	498	307	190	n/a	n/a	15	Japan
Jonsson, Michael	51	801	497	292	181	204	126	28	Sweden

IAU World Best Performance for 6-Day Race (as of August 2016)

Age Group             Distance: (km)       Distance: (miles)    Runner:

(35-39)                    871.756                  541.68                     Mauduit, Christian

(40-44)                    975.200                   605.96                     Boussiquet, Jean-Gilles

(45-49)                    1036.800                 644.23                     Kouros, Yiannis

(50-54)                    980.800                   609.44                     Mainix, Gilbert

(55-59)                    1007.600                 626.09                     Mainix, Gilbert

(60-64)                    874.294                   543.26                     Schwerk, Wolfgang

(65-69)                    704.525                   437.77                     Audley, George

(70-74)                    653.600                   406.12                     Young, Cliff

(75-79)                    584.993                   363.49                     Kettle, Drew

(80-84)                    487.631                   302.99                     Corbitt, Ted

Past podium performances at EMU:

                1^st Place                                   2^nd Place                                  3^rd Place

2017        Johan Steene 870 km/540 mi      Peter Molnar 842 km                 Chaigne, Olivier 834 km                           

2016        Joe Fejes 887 km/551 mi           Wolfgang Schwerk 874 km        Jonsson, Mikael 801 km

2015        Joe Fejes 975 km/606 mi           Keith, Eoin 816 km                   Michalitz, Andreas 784 km

2014        Chaigne, Olivier 920 km/571      Schlotter, Hans-Jürgen 876 km   Sessegolo, Didier 760 km

2013        Schwerk, Wolfgang 857 km/532 Sjåvik, Trond 820 km                Pula, Tamas 767 km

2012        Schwerk, Wolfgang 874 km/543 Fryer, Martin 815 km                 Accorsi, Andrea 777 km

2011        Sichel, William 834 km/518       Schlotter, Hans-Jürgen 744 km   Bögi, Sandor Alexander 691 km

Weather Forecast:

The weather forecast during the race will be typical Lake Balaton weather—daytime highs near 80 and lows in the upper 50s with a chance of scattered showers during the event on at least two of the 6 days.  I always struggled mightily between 10 am and 3 pm due to the direct sunlight on the old course.  I’m not sure how shaded the new course is but it will be interesting to me to see how each runner break and sleep strategy vary with the weather conditions. Weather conditions (rather than sleepiness) often dictate my sleep strategy. 

Sleep strategy: There are two school of thoughts on the optimal sleep strategy in a 6-day race.  Yiannis Kouros and Wolfgang Schwerk both only slept a total of about 9 hours during the race while I slept almost 25 hours. The 16 hours of extra sleep I required is almost certainly the reason my personal best of 975 km/606 miles isn’t close to YK and the Wolfgang’s six-day marks.   It will be fascinating to tally the sleep totals of each of the runners and what strategy (if any) they used.   

Race Strategy Prediction: My prediction on how I think the above-mentioned runners will fare day 1.  (Personal note and acknowledgment): Day 1 results has little if anything to do with how (or if) a runner finishes. In fact, like every other ultra, going big on day 1 often results in a runner quitting the race early. 

Day 1:      Odani (135-145)

                Thwaites (130-140)

                Hokes (125-135)

                Hearn (120-130)

                Hori (120-130)

                Schwerk  (115-125)

                Molnar (105-112)

                Posado Perez (105-115)

                Etiemble (105-115)

Notarangelo (105-115)

Sessegelo (104-112)

                Jonsson (100-108)

Podium Prediction:

I struggled immensely with my podium picks this year.

The runner with the best statistics hands down, Wolfgang Schwerk, is 62 years old and didn’t exceed 800 km in last year’s event.  The runner with the next best 24-hour performance Shuhei Odani hasn’t even attempted a 48-hour race before yet alone a six-day race. 

Mick Thwaites seems to have the age, experience and credentials to do well but once again he is a virgin at this distance.  Martin Hokes is in his prime age wise and recently ran a stellar 24-hour race (152 miles), but like Odani hasn’t even attempted a multiday race.  Very few runners have succeeded in their multiday debut. 

What about Bob? The odds of Bob nailing an 875km+ performance in his six-day debut are high if he can survive the physical trauma that his legs will surely endure on days 3 and 4. If (emphasis on if) he can answer the bell on day 5 he will almost surely break my age group AR and possibly exceed 600 miles.

Sasaki & Hori.  On paper Hori looks to have superior credentials from a leg speed perspective when 24-hour personal bests are considered. Sasaki though likely has better odds on success since he has in fact already eclipsed 800 km for six days.

How about the two experienced and high regarded French multiday runners: Sessegelo & Etiemble? Both are still capable of winning but it has been more than 5 years since either has surpassed 800km.

At 63 years old, the great Posado Perez from Spain is the oldest of the bunch and father time might be putting up a fence around his desire to go further than 800 km.

Peter Molnar and Mikael Jonsson are relatively slower in terms of leg speed compared to the other favorites but have proven they have what it takes to compete in the 6-day. Jonsson’s prior ultrarunning results suggest that 801 km may have been a high-water mark for him while an opposite conclusion can be drawn from Peter’s recent results.

So what distance will win it?  Will someone crack 900km? How about 1000? Is YK’s 1036.80 (WR) finally going down?

Put me down for Thwaites for the win with an 895 km performance followed closely behind by Bob who nabs the silver while breaking my US 50-54 age group record of 887.509 km/551.47 miles.  Molnar podiums again with a third-place finish and a personal best.

Best regards to all runners. Can’t wait to follow! The 6-Day Race is the most exciting ultrarunning race on the planet (in my opinion).

Much respect,

Joe Fejes